Natura Co (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.94
| NTCO3 Stock | BRL 14.45 0.20 1.40% |
Natura |
Natura Co Target Price Odds to finish below 11.94
The tendency of Natura Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 11.94 or more in 90 days |
| 14.45 | 90 days | 11.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natura Co to drop to R$ 11.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Natura Co Holding probability density function shows the probability of Natura Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natura Co Holding price to stay between R$ 11.94 and its current price of R$14.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.86 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.03 . This indicates Natura Co Holding market returns are related to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Natura Co is expected to follow. Additionally Natura Co Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Natura Co Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natura Co
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natura Co Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Natura Co Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natura Co is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natura Co's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natura Co Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natura Co within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Natura Co Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natura Co for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natura Co Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natura Co Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Natura Co Holding has accumulated about 657.86 M in cash with (114.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.78. | |
| Roughly 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Natura Co Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Natura Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Natura Co's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Natura Co's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6 B |
Natura Co Technical Analysis
Natura Co's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natura Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natura Co Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natura Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natura Co Predictive Forecast Models
Natura Co's time-series forecasting models is one of many Natura Co's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natura Co's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natura Co Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natura Co for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natura Co Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natura Co Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Natura Co Holding has accumulated about 657.86 M in cash with (114.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.78. | |
| Roughly 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Natura Stock Analysis
When running Natura Co's price analysis, check to measure Natura Co's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natura Co is operating at the current time. Most of Natura Co's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natura Co's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natura Co's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natura Co to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.