Nufarm (Australia) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.17
| NUF Stock | 3.80 0.03 0.78% |
Nufarm |
Nufarm Target Price Odds to finish below 2.17
The tendency of Nufarm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 2.17 or more in 90 days |
| 3.80 | 90 days | 2.17 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nufarm to drop to 2.17 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Nufarm probability density function shows the probability of Nufarm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nufarm price to stay between 2.17 and its current price of 3.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 32.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Nufarm has a beta of 0.32. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Nufarm average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Nufarm will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Nufarm has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Nufarm Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nufarm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nufarm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nufarm Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nufarm is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nufarm's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nufarm, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nufarm within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Nufarm Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nufarm for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nufarm can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nufarm generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Nufarm has accumulated about 7.54 M in cash with (125.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: UBS rates NUF as Neutral - Marketscreener.com |
Nufarm Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nufarm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nufarm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nufarm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 383.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 411 M |
Nufarm Technical Analysis
Nufarm's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nufarm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nufarm. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nufarm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nufarm Predictive Forecast Models
Nufarm's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nufarm's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nufarm's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nufarm
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nufarm for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nufarm help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nufarm generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Nufarm has accumulated about 7.54 M in cash with (125.62 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: UBS rates NUF as Neutral - Marketscreener.com |
Additional Tools for Nufarm Stock Analysis
When running Nufarm's price analysis, check to measure Nufarm's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nufarm is operating at the current time. Most of Nufarm's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nufarm's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nufarm's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nufarm to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.