Charoen Pokphand (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.67
| NVAV Stock | EUR 0.65 0.01 1.52% |
Charoen |
Charoen Pokphand Target Price Odds to finish below 0.67
The tendency of Charoen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 0.67 after 90 days |
| 0.65 | 90 days | 0.67 | about 87.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Charoen Pokphand to stay under € 0.67 after 90 days from now is about 87.26 (This Charoen Pokphand Foods probability density function shows the probability of Charoen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Charoen Pokphand Foods price to stay between its current price of € 0.65 and € 0.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.48 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Charoen Pokphand Foods has a beta of -0.42. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Charoen Pokphand are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Charoen Pokphand Foods is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Charoen Pokphand Foods has an alpha of 0.1281, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Charoen Pokphand Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Charoen Pokphand
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Charoen Pokphand Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Charoen Pokphand's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Charoen Pokphand Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Charoen Pokphand is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Charoen Pokphand's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Charoen Pokphand Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Charoen Pokphand within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Charoen Pokphand Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Charoen Pokphand for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Charoen Pokphand Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Charoen Pokphand has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Charoen Pokphand has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Charoen Pokphand Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Charoen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Charoen Pokphand's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Charoen Pokphand's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.9 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 183.6 B |
Charoen Pokphand Technical Analysis
Charoen Pokphand's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Charoen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Charoen Pokphand Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Charoen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Charoen Pokphand Predictive Forecast Models
Charoen Pokphand's time-series forecasting models is one of many Charoen Pokphand's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Charoen Pokphand's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Charoen Pokphand Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Charoen Pokphand for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Charoen Pokphand Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Charoen Pokphand has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Charoen Pokphand has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Other Information on Investing in Charoen Stock
Charoen Pokphand financial ratios help investors to determine whether Charoen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Charoen with respect to the benefits of owning Charoen Pokphand security.