NORTHEAST UTILITIES (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 62.25
| NWJ Stock | EUR 60.50 1.00 1.68% |
NORTHEAST |
NORTHEAST UTILITIES Target Price Odds to finish below 62.25
The tendency of NORTHEAST Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 62.25 after 90 days |
| 60.50 | 90 days | 62.25 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NORTHEAST UTILITIES to stay under € 62.25 after 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This NORTHEAST UTILITIES probability density function shows the probability of NORTHEAST Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NORTHEAST UTILITIES price to stay between its current price of € 60.50 and € 62.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NORTHEAST UTILITIES has a beta of -0.0032. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NORTHEAST UTILITIES are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NORTHEAST UTILITIES is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NORTHEAST UTILITIES has an alpha of 0.0275, implying that it can generate a 0.0275 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). NORTHEAST UTILITIES Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NORTHEAST UTILITIES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NORTHEAST UTILITIES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NORTHEAST UTILITIES Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NORTHEAST UTILITIES is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NORTHEAST UTILITIES's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NORTHEAST UTILITIES, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NORTHEAST UTILITIES within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0032 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
NORTHEAST UTILITIES Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NORTHEAST Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NORTHEAST UTILITIES's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NORTHEAST UTILITIES's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 348.4 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -867.6 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 2.8 B |
NORTHEAST UTILITIES Technical Analysis
NORTHEAST UTILITIES's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NORTHEAST Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NORTHEAST UTILITIES. In general, you should focus on analyzing NORTHEAST Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NORTHEAST UTILITIES Predictive Forecast Models
NORTHEAST UTILITIES's time-series forecasting models is one of many NORTHEAST UTILITIES's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NORTHEAST UTILITIES's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NORTHEAST UTILITIES in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NORTHEAST UTILITIES's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NORTHEAST UTILITIES options trading.
Other Information on Investing in NORTHEAST Stock
NORTHEAST UTILITIES financial ratios help investors to determine whether NORTHEAST Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NORTHEAST with respect to the benefits of owning NORTHEAST UTILITIES security.