Nextcure Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.17
| NXTC Stock | USD 1.17 0.03 2.50% |
NextCure |
NextCure Target Price Odds to finish over 1.17
The tendency of NextCure Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 1.17 | 90 days | 1.17 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NextCure to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This NextCure probability density function shows the probability of NextCure Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days NextCure has a beta of -0.23. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NextCure are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NextCure is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NextCure has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NextCure Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NextCure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NextCure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NextCure's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NextCure Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NextCure is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NextCure's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NextCure, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NextCure within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
NextCure Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NextCure for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NextCure can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NextCure generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NextCure may become a speculative penny stock | |
| NextCure has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NextCure has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (62.72 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (54.2 M). | |
| NextCure currently holds about 185.49 M in cash with (52.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.68, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| NextCure has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: NextCure to Participate in the 36th Annual Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference |
NextCure Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of NextCure Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential NextCure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NextCure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 108.3 M |
NextCure Technical Analysis
NextCure's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NextCure Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NextCure. In general, you should focus on analyzing NextCure Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NextCure Predictive Forecast Models
NextCure's time-series forecasting models is one of many NextCure's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NextCure's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NextCure
Checking the ongoing alerts about NextCure for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NextCure help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NextCure generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| NextCure may become a speculative penny stock | |
| NextCure has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| NextCure has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (62.72 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (54.2 M). | |
| NextCure currently holds about 185.49 M in cash with (52.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.68, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| NextCure has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: NextCure to Participate in the 36th Annual Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference |
Check out NextCure Backtesting, NextCure Valuation, NextCure Correlation, NextCure Hype Analysis, NextCure Volatility, NextCure History as well as NextCure Performance. For information on how to trade NextCure Stock refer to our How to Trade NextCure Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NextCure. If investors know NextCure will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NextCure listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.10) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets (0.31) | Return On Equity (0.55) |
The market value of NextCure is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NextCure that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NextCure's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NextCure's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NextCure's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NextCure's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NextCure's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NextCure is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NextCure's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.