Obsidian Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.36
| OBE Stock | USD 5.42 0.01 0.18% |
Closest to current price Obsidian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 16.36
The tendency of Obsidian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 16.36 or more in 90 days |
| 5.42 | 90 days | 16.36 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Obsidian Energy to move over $ 16.36 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Obsidian Energy probability density function shows the probability of Obsidian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Obsidian Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 5.42 and $ 16.36 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.08 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Obsidian Energy has a beta of -0.13. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Obsidian Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Obsidian Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Obsidian Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Obsidian Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Obsidian Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obsidian Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Obsidian Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Obsidian Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Obsidian Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Obsidian Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Obsidian Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Obsidian Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Obsidian Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Obsidian Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Obsidian Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Obsidian Energy has 228 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.38, which is OK given its current industry classification. Obsidian Energy has a current ratio of 0.26, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Obsidian to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Obsidian Energy has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings |
Obsidian Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Obsidian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Obsidian Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Obsidian Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 500 K |
Obsidian Energy Technical Analysis
Obsidian Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Obsidian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Obsidian Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Obsidian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Obsidian Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Obsidian Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Obsidian Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Obsidian Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Obsidian Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Obsidian Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Obsidian Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Obsidian Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Obsidian Energy has 228 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.38, which is OK given its current industry classification. Obsidian Energy has a current ratio of 0.26, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Obsidian to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Obsidian Energy has a very strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings |
Check out Obsidian Energy Backtesting, Obsidian Energy Valuation, Obsidian Energy Correlation, Obsidian Energy Hype Analysis, Obsidian Energy Volatility, Obsidian Energy History as well as Obsidian Energy Performance. For information on how to trade Obsidian Stock refer to our How to Trade Obsidian Stock guide.You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Obsidian Energy. If investors know Obsidian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Obsidian Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.4 | Earnings Share 1.01 | Revenue Per Share 9.012 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 | Return On Assets 0.0519 |
The market value of Obsidian Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Obsidian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Obsidian Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Obsidian Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Obsidian Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Obsidian Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Obsidian Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Obsidian Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Obsidian Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.