ETFS Coffee (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 39.81
| OD7B Stock | 49.29 0.14 0.28% |
ETFS |
ETFS Coffee Target Price Odds to finish over 39.81
The tendency of ETFS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 39.81 in 90 days |
| 49.29 | 90 days | 39.81 | about 44.58 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ETFS Coffee to stay above 39.81 in 90 days from now is about 44.58 (This ETFS Coffee ETC probability density function shows the probability of ETFS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ETFS Coffee ETC price to stay between 39.81 and its current price of 49.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.57 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ETFS Coffee has a beta of 0.57. This indicates as returns on the market go up, ETFS Coffee average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ETFS Coffee ETC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ETFS Coffee ETC has an alpha of 0.3776, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ETFS Coffee Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ETFS Coffee
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ETFS Coffee ETC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ETFS Coffee. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ETFS Coffee's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ETFS Coffee's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ETFS Coffee ETC.ETFS Coffee Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ETFS Coffee is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ETFS Coffee's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ETFS Coffee ETC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ETFS Coffee within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
ETFS Coffee Technical Analysis
ETFS Coffee's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ETFS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ETFS Coffee ETC. In general, you should focus on analyzing ETFS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ETFS Coffee Predictive Forecast Models
ETFS Coffee's time-series forecasting models is one of many ETFS Coffee's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ETFS Coffee's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ETFS Coffee in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ETFS Coffee's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ETFS Coffee options trading.