ORIX (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.64
| OIX Stock | EUR 20.40 0.20 0.99% |
ORIX |
ORIX Target Price Odds to finish below 19.64
The tendency of ORIX Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 19.64 or more in 90 days |
| 20.40 | 90 days | 19.64 | about 15.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ORIX to drop to € 19.64 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.2 (This ORIX Corporation probability density function shows the probability of ORIX Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ORIX price to stay between € 19.64 and its current price of €20.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.55 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon ORIX has a beta of 0.63. This indicates as returns on the market go up, ORIX average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ORIX Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ORIX Corporation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ORIX Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ORIX
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ORIX. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ORIX Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ORIX is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ORIX's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ORIX Corporation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ORIX within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
ORIX Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ORIX for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ORIX can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ORIX generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ORIX has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
ORIX Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ORIX Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ORIX's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ORIX's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B |
ORIX Technical Analysis
ORIX's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ORIX Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ORIX Corporation. In general, you should focus on analyzing ORIX Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ORIX Predictive Forecast Models
ORIX's time-series forecasting models is one of many ORIX's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ORIX's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ORIX
Checking the ongoing alerts about ORIX for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ORIX help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ORIX generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ORIX has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations |
Other Information on Investing in ORIX Stock
ORIX financial ratios help investors to determine whether ORIX Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ORIX with respect to the benefits of owning ORIX security.