Ontrak Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 8.48
| OTRK Stock | USD 1.85 0.05 2.78% |
Ontrak |
Ontrak Target Price Odds to finish below 8.48
The tendency of Ontrak Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 8.48 after 90 days |
| 1.85 | 90 days | 8.48 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ontrak to stay under $ 8.48 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ontrak Inc probability density function shows the probability of Ontrak Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ontrak Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 1.85 and $ 8.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Ontrak has a beta of 0.76. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Ontrak average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ontrak Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ontrak Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ontrak Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ontrak
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ontrak Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ontrak Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ontrak is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ontrak's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ontrak Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ontrak within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.73 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.76 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Ontrak Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ontrak for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ontrak Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ontrak Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ontrak Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ontrak Inc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Ontrak Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.05 M. | |
| Ontrak Inc currently holds about 10.05 M in cash with (15.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.39. | |
| Ontrak Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC Acquires New Stake in Ontrak Inc |
Ontrak Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ontrak Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ontrak's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ontrak's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.7 M |
Ontrak Technical Analysis
Ontrak's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ontrak Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ontrak Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ontrak Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ontrak Predictive Forecast Models
Ontrak's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ontrak's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ontrak's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ontrak Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ontrak for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ontrak Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ontrak Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ontrak Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ontrak Inc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Ontrak Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.05 M. | |
| Ontrak Inc currently holds about 10.05 M in cash with (15.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.39. | |
| Ontrak Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC Acquires New Stake in Ontrak Inc |
Check out Ontrak Backtesting, Ontrak Valuation, Ontrak Correlation, Ontrak Hype Analysis, Ontrak Volatility, Ontrak History as well as Ontrak Performance. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ontrak. If investors know Ontrak will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ontrak listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 31.91 | Revenue Per Share 4.585 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets (0.45) | Return On Equity (3.41) |
The market value of Ontrak Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ontrak that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ontrak's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ontrak's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ontrak's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ontrak's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ontrak's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ontrak is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ontrak's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.