Personel Alih (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.23
| PADA Stock | 12.00 1.00 9.09% |
Personel |
Personel Alih Target Price Odds to finish over 16.23
The tendency of Personel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 16.23 or more in 90 days |
| 12.00 | 90 days | 16.23 | about 22.15 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Personel Alih to move over 16.23 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.15 (This Personel Alih Daya probability density function shows the probability of Personel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Personel Alih Daya price to stay between its current price of 12.00 and 16.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.75 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Personel Alih Daya has a beta of -0.24 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Personel Alih are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Personel Alih Daya is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Personel Alih Daya has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Personel Alih Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Personel Alih
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Personel Alih Daya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Personel Alih Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Personel Alih is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Personel Alih's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Personel Alih Daya, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Personel Alih within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Personel Alih Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Personel Alih for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Personel Alih Daya can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Personel Alih Daya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Personel Alih Daya has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 71.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Personel Alih Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Personel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Personel Alih's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Personel Alih's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Float | 642.8 M |
Personel Alih Technical Analysis
Personel Alih's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Personel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Personel Alih Daya. In general, you should focus on analyzing Personel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Personel Alih Predictive Forecast Models
Personel Alih's time-series forecasting models is one of many Personel Alih's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Personel Alih's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Personel Alih Daya
Checking the ongoing alerts about Personel Alih for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Personel Alih Daya help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Personel Alih Daya generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Personel Alih Daya has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 71.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Personel Stock
Personel Alih financial ratios help investors to determine whether Personel Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Personel with respect to the benefits of owning Personel Alih security.