Penske Automotive Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 158.87
| PAG Stock | USD 166.78 0.70 0.42% |
Penske |
Penske Automotive Target Price Odds to finish over 158.87
The tendency of Penske Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 158.87 in 90 days |
| 166.78 | 90 days | 158.87 | about 39.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Penske Automotive to stay above $ 158.87 in 90 days from now is about 39.27 (This Penske Automotive Group probability density function shows the probability of Penske Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Penske Automotive price to stay between $ 158.87 and its current price of $166.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.89 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.32 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Penske Automotive will likely underperform. Additionally Penske Automotive Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Penske Automotive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Penske Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penske Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Penske Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Penske Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Penske Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Penske Automotive Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Penske Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Penske Automotive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Penske Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Penske Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Penske Automotive is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Penske Automotive Group has 7.74 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is OK given its current industry classification. Penske Automotive has a current ratio of 0.96, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Penske to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Penske Automotive has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 76.0% of Penske Automotive shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Penske Automotives SWOT analysis diversification drives stock resilience |
Penske Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Penske Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Penske Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penske Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.4 M |
Penske Automotive Technical Analysis
Penske Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Penske Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Penske Automotive Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Penske Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Penske Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
Penske Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Penske Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Penske Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Penske Automotive
Checking the ongoing alerts about Penske Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Penske Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Penske Automotive is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Penske Automotive Group has 7.74 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.6, which is OK given its current industry classification. Penske Automotive has a current ratio of 0.96, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Penske to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Penske Automotive has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 76.0% of Penske Automotive shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Penske Automotives SWOT analysis diversification drives stock resilience |
Check out Penske Automotive Backtesting, Penske Automotive Valuation, Penske Automotive Correlation, Penske Automotive Hype Analysis, Penske Automotive Volatility, Penske Automotive History as well as Penske Automotive Performance. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Automotive Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penske Automotive. If investors know Penske will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penske Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Dividend Share 4.09 | Earnings Share 13.06 | Revenue Per Share 447.96 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.019 |
The market value of Penske Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penske that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penske Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penske Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penske Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penske Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penske Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Penske Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penske Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.