Petrleo Brasileiro Sa Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.92
| PBR-A Stock | USD 13.04 0.11 0.84% |
Petróleo |
Petróleo Brasileiro Target Price Odds to finish below 11.92
The tendency of Petróleo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.92 or more in 90 days |
| 13.04 | 90 days | 11.92 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Petróleo Brasileiro to drop to $ 11.92 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Petrleo Brasileiro SA probability density function shows the probability of Petróleo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Petróleo Brasileiro price to stay between $ 11.92 and its current price of $13.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.5 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Petróleo Brasileiro has a beta of 0.33 indicating as returns on the market go up, Petróleo Brasileiro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Petrleo Brasileiro SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Petrleo Brasileiro SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Petróleo Brasileiro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Petróleo Brasileiro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Petróleo Brasileiro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Petróleo Brasileiro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Petróleo Brasileiro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Petróleo Brasileiro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Petrleo Brasileiro SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Petróleo Brasileiro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Petróleo Brasileiro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Petróleo Brasileiro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Petróleo Brasileiro can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Petróleo Brasileiro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Petróleo Brasileiro has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Petróleo Brasileiro has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: SDRLs West Auriga West Polaris Gear Up for New Assignment in Brazil |
Petróleo Brasileiro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Petróleo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Petróleo Brasileiro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Petróleo Brasileiro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.5 B |
Petróleo Brasileiro Technical Analysis
Petróleo Brasileiro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Petróleo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Petrleo Brasileiro SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Petróleo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Petróleo Brasileiro Predictive Forecast Models
Petróleo Brasileiro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Petróleo Brasileiro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Petróleo Brasileiro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Petróleo Brasileiro
Checking the ongoing alerts about Petróleo Brasileiro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Petróleo Brasileiro help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Petróleo Brasileiro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Petróleo Brasileiro has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Petróleo Brasileiro has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: SDRLs West Auriga West Polaris Gear Up for New Assignment in Brazil |
Other Information on Investing in Petróleo Stock
Petróleo Brasileiro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Petróleo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Petróleo with respect to the benefits of owning Petróleo Brasileiro security.