Premier Foods (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 183.38
| PFD Stock | 188.40 1.00 0.53% |
Premier |
Premier Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 183.38
The tendency of Premier Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 183.38 or more in 90 days |
| 188.40 | 90 days | 183.38 | about 41.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Premier Foods to drop to 183.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 41.99 (This Premier Foods PLC probability density function shows the probability of Premier Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Premier Foods PLC price to stay between 183.38 and its current price of 188.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Premier Foods has a beta of 0.51 indicating as returns on the market go up, Premier Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Premier Foods PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Premier Foods PLC has an alpha of 0.0329, implying that it can generate a 0.0329 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Premier Foods Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Premier Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Premier Foods PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Premier Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Premier Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Premier Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Premier Foods PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Premier Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Premier Foods Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Premier Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Premier Foods PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Premier Foods 3-Year FCF Growth Rate 12.50 percent - GuruFocus.com |
Premier Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Premier Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Premier Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Premier Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 883.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.3 M |
Premier Foods Technical Analysis
Premier Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Premier Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Premier Foods PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Premier Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Premier Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Premier Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Premier Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Premier Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Premier Foods PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Premier Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Premier Foods PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Premier Foods 3-Year FCF Growth Rate 12.50 percent - GuruFocus.com |
Other Information on Investing in Premier Stock
Premier Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether Premier Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Premier with respect to the benefits of owning Premier Foods security.