Packages (Pakistan) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 462.13
| PKGS Stock | 603.99 13.94 2.36% |
Packages |
Packages Target Price Odds to finish below 462.13
The tendency of Packages Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 462.13 or more in 90 days |
| 603.99 | 90 days | 462.13 | about 29.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Packages to drop to 462.13 or more in 90 days from now is about 29.01 (This Packages probability density function shows the probability of Packages Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Packages price to stay between 462.13 and its current price of 603.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.56 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Packages has a beta of 0.39 indicating as returns on the market go up, Packages average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Packages will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Packages has an alpha of 0.3436, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Packages Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Packages
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Packages. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Packages Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Packages is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Packages' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Packages, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Packages within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 42.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Packages Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Packages Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Packages' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Packages' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 89.4 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 2 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 24.4 B |
Packages Technical Analysis
Packages' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Packages Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Packages. In general, you should focus on analyzing Packages Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Packages Predictive Forecast Models
Packages' time-series forecasting models is one of many Packages' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Packages' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Packages in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Packages' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Packages options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Packages Stock
Packages financial ratios help investors to determine whether Packages Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Packages with respect to the benefits of owning Packages security.