PKP Cargo (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.53
| PKP Stock | 13.82 0.10 0.73% |
PKP |
PKP Cargo Target Price Odds to finish over 22.53
The tendency of PKP Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 22.53 or more in 90 days |
| 13.82 | 90 days | 22.53 | about 1.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PKP Cargo to move over 22.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.11 (This PKP Cargo SA probability density function shows the probability of PKP Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PKP Cargo SA price to stay between its current price of 13.82 and 22.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PKP Cargo SA has a beta of -0.51 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PKP Cargo are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PKP Cargo SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PKP Cargo SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PKP Cargo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PKP Cargo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PKP Cargo SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PKP Cargo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PKP Cargo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PKP Cargo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PKP Cargo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PKP Cargo SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PKP Cargo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
PKP Cargo Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PKP Cargo for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PKP Cargo SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PKP Cargo SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
PKP Cargo Technical Analysis
PKP Cargo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PKP Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PKP Cargo SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing PKP Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PKP Cargo Predictive Forecast Models
PKP Cargo's time-series forecasting models is one of many PKP Cargo's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PKP Cargo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PKP Cargo SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about PKP Cargo for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PKP Cargo SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PKP Cargo SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for PKP Stock Analysis
When running PKP Cargo's price analysis, check to measure PKP Cargo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PKP Cargo is operating at the current time. Most of PKP Cargo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PKP Cargo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PKP Cargo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PKP Cargo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.