Perdana Karya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 820.5
| PKPK Stock | IDR 810.00 5.00 0.61% |
Perdana |
Perdana Karya Target Price Odds to finish over 820.5
The tendency of Perdana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 820.50 or more in 90 days |
| 810.00 | 90 days | 820.50 | about 27.95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Perdana Karya to move over 820.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.95 (This Perdana Karya Perkasa probability density function shows the probability of Perdana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Perdana Karya Perkasa price to stay between its current price of 810.00 and 820.50 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.81 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Perdana Karya Perkasa has a beta of -0.0997 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Perdana Karya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Perdana Karya Perkasa is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Perdana Karya Perkasa has an alpha of 1.5568, implying that it can generate a 1.56 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Perdana Karya Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Perdana Karya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Perdana Karya Perkasa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Perdana Karya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Perdana Karya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Perdana Karya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Perdana Karya Perkasa, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Perdana Karya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.56 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 198.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Perdana Karya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Perdana Karya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Perdana Karya Perkasa can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Perdana Karya is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Perdana Karya appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.08 B. Net Loss for the year was (877.78 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 142.13 M. | |
| About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Perdana Karya Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Perdana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Perdana Karya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Perdana Karya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 600 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 B |
Perdana Karya Technical Analysis
Perdana Karya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Perdana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Perdana Karya Perkasa. In general, you should focus on analyzing Perdana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Perdana Karya Predictive Forecast Models
Perdana Karya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Perdana Karya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Perdana Karya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Perdana Karya Perkasa
Checking the ongoing alerts about Perdana Karya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Perdana Karya Perkasa help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Perdana Karya is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Perdana Karya appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.08 B. Net Loss for the year was (877.78 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 142.13 M. | |
| About 64.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Perdana Stock
Perdana Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Perdana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Perdana with respect to the benefits of owning Perdana Karya security.