PENN NATL (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 16.19
| PN1 Stock | EUR 19.18 0.33 1.75% |
PENN |
PENN NATL Target Price Odds to finish below 16.19
The tendency of PENN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 16.19 or more in 90 days |
| 19.18 | 90 days | 16.19 | about 9.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PENN NATL to drop to € 16.19 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.86 (This PENN NATL GAMING probability density function shows the probability of PENN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PENN NATL GAMING price to stay between € 16.19 and its current price of €19.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PENN NATL has a beta of 0.0633 indicating as returns on the market go up, PENN NATL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PENN NATL GAMING will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PENN NATL GAMING has an alpha of 0.1496, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PENN NATL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PENN NATL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PENN NATL GAMING. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PENN NATL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PENN NATL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PENN NATL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PENN NATL GAMING, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PENN NATL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
PENN NATL Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PENN Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PENN NATL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PENN NATL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 153.5 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 119.6 M |
PENN NATL Technical Analysis
PENN NATL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PENN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PENN NATL GAMING. In general, you should focus on analyzing PENN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PENN NATL Predictive Forecast Models
PENN NATL's time-series forecasting models is one of many PENN NATL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PENN NATL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PENN NATL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PENN NATL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PENN NATL options trading.
Other Information on Investing in PENN Stock
PENN NATL financial ratios help investors to determine whether PENN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PENN with respect to the benefits of owning PENN NATL security.