Patriot National Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 27.68
| PNBK Stock | USD 2.39 0.23 8.78% |
Patriot |
Patriot National Target Price Odds to finish over 27.68
The tendency of Patriot Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 27.68 or more in 90 days |
| 2.39 | 90 days | 27.68 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Patriot National to move over $ 27.68 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Patriot National Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Patriot Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Patriot National Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 2.39 and $ 27.68 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.27 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Patriot National will likely underperform. Additionally Patriot National Bancorp has an alpha of 0.6911, implying that it can generate a 0.69 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Patriot National Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Patriot National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patriot National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Patriot National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Patriot National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Patriot National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Patriot National Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Patriot National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Patriot National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Patriot National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Patriot National Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Patriot National is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Patriot National appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Patriot National has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 27.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.18 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 34.98 M. | |
| Patriot National Bancorp currently holds about 37.62 M in cash with (10.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.51, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Patriot National has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 56.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from americanbanker.com: Patriot National in Connecticut mulls sale |
Patriot National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Patriot Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Patriot National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Patriot National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 52.5 M |
Patriot National Technical Analysis
Patriot National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Patriot Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Patriot National Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Patriot Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Patriot National Predictive Forecast Models
Patriot National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Patriot National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Patriot National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Patriot National Bancorp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Patriot National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Patriot National Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Patriot National is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Patriot National appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Patriot National has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 27.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.18 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 34.98 M. | |
| Patriot National Bancorp currently holds about 37.62 M in cash with (10.71 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.51, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Patriot National has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 56.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from americanbanker.com: Patriot National in Connecticut mulls sale |
Check out Patriot National Backtesting, Patriot National Valuation, Patriot National Correlation, Patriot National Hype Analysis, Patriot National Volatility, Patriot National History as well as Patriot National Performance. You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Patriot National. If investors know Patriot will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Patriot National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share (7.40) | Revenue Per Share 6.099 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.45) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Patriot National Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Patriot that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Patriot National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Patriot National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Patriot National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Patriot National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Patriot National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Patriot National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Patriot National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.