Grupo Posadas (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.34
| POSADASA | MXN 24.70 0.80 3.14% |
Grupo |
Grupo Posadas Target Price Odds to finish below 19.34
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 19.34 or more in 90 days |
| 24.70 | 90 days | 19.34 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Posadas to drop to 19.34 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Grupo Posadas SAB probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Posadas SAB price to stay between 19.34 and its current price of 24.7 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Posadas has a beta of 0.0467 indicating as returns on the market go up, Grupo Posadas average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grupo Posadas SAB will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grupo Posadas SAB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grupo Posadas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Posadas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Posadas SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Posadas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grupo Posadas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Posadas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Posadas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Posadas SAB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Posadas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.3 |
Grupo Posadas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Posadas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Posadas SAB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Posadas SAB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Grupo Posadas SAB has accumulated 8.09 B in total debt. Grupo Posadas SAB has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Grupo Posadas until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Grupo Posadas' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Grupo Posadas SAB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Grupo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Grupo Posadas' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Grupo Posadas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Posadas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Posadas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 495.9 M |
Grupo Posadas Technical Analysis
Grupo Posadas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Posadas SAB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Posadas Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Posadas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Posadas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Posadas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Posadas SAB
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Posadas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Posadas SAB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Posadas SAB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Grupo Posadas SAB has accumulated 8.09 B in total debt. Grupo Posadas SAB has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Grupo Posadas until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Grupo Posadas' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Grupo Posadas SAB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Grupo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Grupo Posadas' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Tools for Grupo Stock Analysis
When running Grupo Posadas' price analysis, check to measure Grupo Posadas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupo Posadas is operating at the current time. Most of Grupo Posadas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupo Posadas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupo Posadas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupo Posadas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.