MODIVCARE INC (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.5
| PRF0 Stock | EUR 17.20 0.30 1.71% |
MODIVCARE |
MODIVCARE INC Target Price Odds to finish below 14.5
The tendency of MODIVCARE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 14.50 or more in 90 days |
| 17.20 | 90 days | 14.50 | about 49.27 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MODIVCARE INC to drop to € 14.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.27 (This MODIVCARE INC DL 001 probability density function shows the probability of MODIVCARE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MODIVCARE INC DL price to stay between € 14.50 and its current price of €17.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MODIVCARE INC DL 001 has a beta of -0.0098 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding MODIVCARE INC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, MODIVCARE INC DL 001 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally MODIVCARE INC DL 001 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MODIVCARE INC Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for MODIVCARE INC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MODIVCARE INC DL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MODIVCARE INC Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MODIVCARE INC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MODIVCARE INC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MODIVCARE INC DL 001, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MODIVCARE INC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0098 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
MODIVCARE INC Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MODIVCARE INC for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MODIVCARE INC DL can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MODIVCARE INC DL is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| MODIVCARE INC DL appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| MODIVCARE INC DL has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
MODIVCARE INC Technical Analysis
MODIVCARE INC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MODIVCARE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MODIVCARE INC DL 001. In general, you should focus on analyzing MODIVCARE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MODIVCARE INC Predictive Forecast Models
MODIVCARE INC's time-series forecasting models is one of many MODIVCARE INC's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MODIVCARE INC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MODIVCARE INC DL
Checking the ongoing alerts about MODIVCARE INC for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MODIVCARE INC DL help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MODIVCARE INC DL is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| MODIVCARE INC DL appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| MODIVCARE INC DL has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in MODIVCARE Stock
MODIVCARE INC financial ratios help investors to determine whether MODIVCARE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MODIVCARE with respect to the benefits of owning MODIVCARE INC security.