PBG SA (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.38
| PTBL3 Stock | BRL 4.17 0.12 2.96% |
PBG |
PBG SA Target Price Odds to finish below 1.38
The tendency of PBG Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 1.38 or more in 90 days |
| 4.17 | 90 days | 1.38 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PBG SA to drop to R$ 1.38 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This PBG SA probability density function shows the probability of PBG Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PBG SA price to stay between R$ 1.38 and its current price of R$4.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PBG SA has a beta of 0.0938 indicating as returns on the market go up, PBG SA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PBG SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PBG SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. PBG SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PBG SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PBG SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PBG SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PBG SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PBG SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PBG SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PBG SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
PBG SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PBG SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PBG SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PBG SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
PBG SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PBG Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PBG SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PBG SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 154.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 189.7 M |
PBG SA Technical Analysis
PBG SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PBG Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PBG SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing PBG Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PBG SA Predictive Forecast Models
PBG SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many PBG SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PBG SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PBG SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about PBG SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PBG SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PBG SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 58.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for PBG Stock Analysis
When running PBG SA's price analysis, check to measure PBG SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PBG SA is operating at the current time. Most of PBG SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PBG SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PBG SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PBG SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.