QUALITY CHEMICAL (Uganda) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 56.96
| QCIL Stock | 56.00 0.00 0.00% |
QUALITY |
QUALITY CHEMICAL Target Price Odds to finish over 56.96
The tendency of QUALITY Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 56.96 or more in 90 days |
| 56.00 | 90 days | 56.96 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of QUALITY CHEMICAL to move over 56.96 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This QUALITY CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES probability density function shows the probability of QUALITY Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of QUALITY CHEMICAL IND price to stay between its current price of 56.00 and 56.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon QUALITY CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES has a beta of -0.0318 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding QUALITY CHEMICAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, QUALITY CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES is likely to outperform the market. Additionally QUALITY CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. QUALITY CHEMICAL Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for QUALITY CHEMICAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as QUALITY CHEMICAL IND. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.QUALITY CHEMICAL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. QUALITY CHEMICAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the QUALITY CHEMICAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold QUALITY CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of QUALITY CHEMICAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0052 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.43 |
QUALITY CHEMICAL Technical Analysis
QUALITY CHEMICAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. QUALITY Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of QUALITY CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES. In general, you should focus on analyzing QUALITY Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
QUALITY CHEMICAL Predictive Forecast Models
QUALITY CHEMICAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many QUALITY CHEMICAL's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary QUALITY CHEMICAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards QUALITY CHEMICAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, QUALITY CHEMICAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from QUALITY CHEMICAL options trading.
Additional Tools for QUALITY Stock Analysis
When running QUALITY CHEMICAL's price analysis, check to measure QUALITY CHEMICAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy QUALITY CHEMICAL is operating at the current time. Most of QUALITY CHEMICAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of QUALITY CHEMICAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move QUALITY CHEMICAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of QUALITY CHEMICAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.