Nova Minerals (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.15
| QM3 Stock | EUR 0.16 0.01 5.88% |
Nova |
Nova Minerals Target Price Odds to finish below 0.15
The tendency of Nova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.15 or more in 90 days |
| 0.16 | 90 days | 0.15 | about 85.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nova Minerals to drop to € 0.15 or more in 90 days from now is about 85.24 (This Nova Minerals Limited probability density function shows the probability of Nova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nova Minerals Limited price to stay between € 0.15 and its current price of €0.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.61 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Nova Minerals Limited has a beta of -0.0613 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Nova Minerals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Nova Minerals Limited is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Nova Minerals Limited has an alpha of 1.0702, implying that it can generate a 1.07 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Nova Minerals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nova Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nova Minerals Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nova Minerals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nova Minerals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nova Minerals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nova Minerals Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nova Minerals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Nova Minerals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nova Minerals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nova Minerals Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nova Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Nova Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Nova Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Nova Minerals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Nova Minerals Limited has accumulated about 23.25 M in cash with (2.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Nova Minerals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nova Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nova Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 180.2 M |
Nova Minerals Technical Analysis
Nova Minerals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nova Minerals Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nova Minerals Predictive Forecast Models
Nova Minerals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Nova Minerals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nova Minerals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nova Minerals Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nova Minerals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nova Minerals Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nova Minerals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Nova Minerals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Nova Minerals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Nova Minerals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Nova Minerals Limited has accumulated about 23.25 M in cash with (2.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Nova Stock
When determining whether Nova Minerals Limited is a strong investment it is important to analyze Nova Minerals' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Nova Minerals' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Nova Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Nova Minerals Backtesting, Nova Minerals Valuation, Nova Minerals Correlation, Nova Minerals Hype Analysis, Nova Minerals Volatility, Nova Minerals History as well as Nova Minerals Performance. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.