Direxion Shares Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 31.53
| QQQU Etf | 49.07 0.90 1.87% |
Direxion |
Direxion Shares Target Price Odds to finish below 31.53
The tendency of Direxion Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 31.53 or more in 90 days |
| 49.07 | 90 days | 31.53 | nearly 4.21 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Direxion Shares to drop to 31.53 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.21 (This Direxion Shares ETF probability density function shows the probability of Direxion Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Direxion Shares ETF price to stay between 31.53 and its current price of 49.07 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Direxion Shares ETF has a beta of -0.0469 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Direxion Shares are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Direxion Shares ETF is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Direxion Shares ETF has an alpha of 0.6439, implying that it can generate a 0.64 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Direxion Shares Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Direxion Shares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Shares ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Direxion Shares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Direxion Shares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Direxion Shares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Direxion Shares ETF, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Direxion Shares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.64 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Direxion Shares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Direxion Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Direxion Shares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Direxion Shares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Direxion Shares Technical Analysis
Direxion Shares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Direxion Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Direxion Shares ETF. In general, you should focus on analyzing Direxion Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Direxion Shares Predictive Forecast Models
Direxion Shares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Direxion Shares' etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Direxion Shares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Direxion Shares in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Direxion Shares' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Direxion Shares options trading.
Check out Direxion Shares Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Direxion Shares Correlation, Direxion Shares Hype Analysis, Direxion Shares Volatility, Direxion Shares History as well as Direxion Shares Performance. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
The market value of Direxion Shares ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Shares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Shares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Shares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Shares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Shares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Shares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Shares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.