Radian (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.02
| RAG Stock | EUR 31.60 0.20 0.63% |
Radian |
Radian Target Price Odds to finish below 22.02
The tendency of Radian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 22.02 or more in 90 days |
| 31.60 | 90 days | 22.02 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Radian to drop to € 22.02 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Radian Group probability density function shows the probability of Radian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Radian Group price to stay between € 22.02 and its current price of €31.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.49 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.02 indicating Radian Group market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Radian is expected to follow. Additionally Radian Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Radian Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Radian
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Radian Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Radian Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Radian is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Radian's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Radian Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Radian within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Radian Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Radian for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Radian Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Radian Group has accumulated 1.57 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 28.7, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Radian Group has a current ratio of 0.57, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Radian until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Radian's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Radian Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Radian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Radian's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Radian shares are owned by institutional investors |
Radian Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Radian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Radian's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Radian's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 157.1 M |
Radian Technical Analysis
Radian's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Radian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Radian Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Radian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Radian Predictive Forecast Models
Radian's time-series forecasting models is one of many Radian's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Radian's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Radian Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Radian for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Radian Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Radian Group has accumulated 1.57 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 28.7, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Radian Group has a current ratio of 0.57, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Radian until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Radian's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Radian Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Radian to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Radian's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Radian shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Radian Stock
When determining whether Radian Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Radian's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Radian Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Radian Group Stock:Check out Radian Backtesting, Radian Valuation, Radian Correlation, Radian Hype Analysis, Radian Volatility, Radian History as well as Radian Performance. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.