Avita Medical Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.82
| RCEL Stock | USD 13.34 0.47 3.65% |
Avita |
Avita Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 12.82
The tendency of Avita Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.82 or more in 90 days |
| 13.34 | 90 days | 12.82 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avita Medical to drop to $ 12.82 or more in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Avita Medical probability density function shows the probability of Avita Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avita Medical price to stay between $ 12.82 and its current price of $13.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.52 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.03 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Avita Medical will likely underperform. Additionally Avita Medical has an alpha of 0.3385, implying that it can generate a 0.34 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Avita Medical Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Avita Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avita Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avita Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avita Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avita Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avita Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avita Medical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avita Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Avita Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avita Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avita Medical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avita Medical has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 50.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (35.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.38 M. | |
| Avita Medical currently holds about 84.17 M in cash with (38.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.67. | |
| Avita Medical has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: AVHHL 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate 0.00 percent - GuruFocus.com |
Avita Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avita Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avita Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avita Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.7 M |
Avita Medical Technical Analysis
Avita Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avita Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avita Medical. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avita Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Avita Medical Predictive Forecast Models
Avita Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Avita Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Avita Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Avita Medical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Avita Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Avita Medical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Avita Medical has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 50.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (35.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.38 M. | |
| Avita Medical currently holds about 84.17 M in cash with (38.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.67. | |
| Avita Medical has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: AVHHL 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate 0.00 percent - GuruFocus.com |
Check out Avita Medical Backtesting, Avita Medical Valuation, Avita Medical Correlation, Avita Medical Hype Analysis, Avita Medical Volatility, Avita Medical History as well as Avita Medical Performance. For more information on how to buy Avita Stock please use our How to buy in Avita Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avita Medical. If investors know Avita will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avita Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.23) | Revenue Per Share 2.335 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.432 | Return On Assets (0.45) | Return On Equity (1.52) |
The market value of Avita Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avita that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avita Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avita Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avita Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avita Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avita Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avita Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avita Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.