Realfiction Holding (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.21
| REALFI Stock | SEK 13.80 0.04 0.29% |
Realfiction |
Realfiction Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 10.21
The tendency of Realfiction Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 10.21 or more in 90 days |
| 13.80 | 90 days | 10.21 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Realfiction Holding to drop to kr 10.21 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Realfiction Holding AB probability density function shows the probability of Realfiction Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Realfiction Holding price to stay between kr 10.21 and its current price of kr13.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.8 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Realfiction Holding has a beta of 0.53 indicating as returns on the market go up, Realfiction Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Realfiction Holding AB will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Realfiction Holding AB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Realfiction Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Realfiction Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Realfiction Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Realfiction Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Realfiction Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Realfiction Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Realfiction Holding AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Realfiction Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.54 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Realfiction Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Realfiction Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Realfiction Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Realfiction Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Realfiction Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Realfiction Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.57 M. Net Loss for the year was (970 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.12 M. | |
| Realfiction Holding AB has accumulated about 40.85 M in cash with (1 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.22. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Realfiction Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Realfiction Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Realfiction Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Realfiction Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.8 M |
Realfiction Holding Technical Analysis
Realfiction Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Realfiction Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Realfiction Holding AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Realfiction Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Realfiction Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Realfiction Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Realfiction Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Realfiction Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Realfiction Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Realfiction Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Realfiction Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Realfiction Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Realfiction Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Realfiction Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.57 M. Net Loss for the year was (970 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 13.12 M. | |
| Realfiction Holding AB has accumulated about 40.85 M in cash with (1 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.22. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Realfiction Stock
Realfiction Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Realfiction Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Realfiction with respect to the benefits of owning Realfiction Holding security.