Reliance Securities (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 450.62
| RELI Stock | IDR 446.00 4.00 0.89% |
Reliance |
Reliance Securities Target Price Odds to finish below 450.62
The tendency of Reliance Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 450.62 after 90 days |
| 446.00 | 90 days | 450.62 | about 22.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Reliance Securities to stay under 450.62 after 90 days from now is about 22.87 (This Reliance Securities Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Reliance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Reliance Securities Tbk price to stay between its current price of 446.00 and 450.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Reliance Securities Tbk has a beta of -0.2 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Reliance Securities are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Reliance Securities Tbk is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Reliance Securities Tbk has an alpha of 0.0467, implying that it can generate a 0.0467 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Reliance Securities Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Reliance Securities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reliance Securities Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Reliance Securities Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Reliance Securities is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Reliance Securities' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Reliance Securities Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Reliance Securities within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Reliance Securities Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Reliance Securities for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Reliance Securities Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Reliance Securities generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 94.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Reliance Securities Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Reliance Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Reliance Securities' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Reliance Securities' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 78.3 B |
Reliance Securities Technical Analysis
Reliance Securities' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Reliance Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Reliance Securities Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Reliance Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Reliance Securities Predictive Forecast Models
Reliance Securities' time-series forecasting models is one of many Reliance Securities' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Reliance Securities' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Reliance Securities Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Reliance Securities for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Reliance Securities Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Reliance Securities generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 94.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Reliance Stock
Reliance Securities financial ratios help investors to determine whether Reliance Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Reliance with respect to the benefits of owning Reliance Securities security.