Rafael Holdings Class Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.03
| RFL Stock | USD 1.86 0.03 1.59% |
Rafael |
Rafael Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 2.03
The tendency of Rafael Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 2.03 after 90 days |
| 1.86 | 90 days | 2.03 | about 81.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Rafael Holdings to stay under $ 2.03 after 90 days from now is about 81.63 (This Rafael Holdings Class probability density function shows the probability of Rafael Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Rafael Holdings Class price to stay between its current price of $ 1.86 and $ 2.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.92 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.08 indicating Rafael Holdings Class market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Rafael Holdings is expected to follow. Additionally Rafael Holdings Class has an alpha of 0.267, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Rafael Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Rafael Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rafael Holdings Class. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rafael Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Rafael Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Rafael Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Rafael Holdings Class, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Rafael Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Rafael Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Rafael Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Rafael Holdings Class can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Rafael Holdings may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Rafael Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 637 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (65 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 279 K. | |
| Rafael Holdings Class has about 21.5 M in cash with (7.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.39. | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Kuehn Law Encourages RVNC, RFL, BTTR, and ARC Investors to Conta - GuruFocus.com |
Rafael Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Rafael Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Rafael Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rafael Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 65.9 M |
Rafael Holdings Technical Analysis
Rafael Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Rafael Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Rafael Holdings Class. In general, you should focus on analyzing Rafael Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Rafael Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Rafael Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Rafael Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Rafael Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Rafael Holdings Class
Checking the ongoing alerts about Rafael Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Rafael Holdings Class help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Rafael Holdings may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Rafael Holdings had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 637 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (65 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 279 K. | |
| Rafael Holdings Class has about 21.5 M in cash with (7.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.39. | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Kuehn Law Encourages RVNC, RFL, BTTR, and ARC Investors to Conta - GuruFocus.com |
Check out Rafael Holdings Backtesting, Rafael Holdings Valuation, Rafael Holdings Correlation, Rafael Holdings Hype Analysis, Rafael Holdings Volatility, Rafael Holdings History as well as Rafael Holdings Performance. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Real Estate Management & Development space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rafael Holdings. If investors know Rafael will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rafael Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.45) | Revenue Per Share 0.027 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.426 | Return On Assets (0.66) | Return On Equity (0.71) |
The market value of Rafael Holdings Class is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rafael that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rafael Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rafael Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rafael Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rafael Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rafael Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rafael Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rafael Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.