Roche Holding (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.09
| RHO6 Stock | EUR 34.08 0.08 0.24% |
Roche |
Roche Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 28.09
The tendency of Roche Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 28.09 or more in 90 days |
| 34.08 | 90 days | 28.09 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Roche Holding to drop to € 28.09 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Roche Holding Ltd probability density function shows the probability of Roche Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Roche Holding price to stay between € 28.09 and its current price of €34.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.29 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Roche Holding has a beta of 0.0711 indicating as returns on the market go up, Roche Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Roche Holding Ltd will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Roche Holding Ltd has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Roche Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Roche Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roche Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Roche Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Roche Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Roche Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Roche Holding Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Roche Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Roche Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Roche Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Roche Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Roche Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Roche Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Roche Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Roche Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Roche Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 854.3 M |
Roche Holding Technical Analysis
Roche Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Roche Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Roche Holding Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing Roche Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Roche Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Roche Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Roche Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Roche Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Roche Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Roche Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Roche Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Roche Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in Roche Stock
Roche Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Roche Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Roche with respect to the benefits of owning Roche Holding security.