Rigel Pharmaceuticals Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 30.03
| RIGL Stock | USD 26.04 1.00 3.99% |
Rigel |
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish below 30.03
The tendency of Rigel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 30.03 after 90 days |
| 26.04 | 90 days | 30.03 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Rigel Pharmaceuticals to stay under $ 30.03 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Rigel Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Rigel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Rigel Pharmaceuticals price to stay between its current price of $ 26.04 and $ 30.03 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.31 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Rigel Pharmaceuticals will likely underperform. Moreover Rigel Pharmaceuticals has an alpha of 1.071, implying that it can generate a 1.07 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Rigel Pharmaceuticals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Rigel Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rigel Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rigel Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Rigel Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Rigel Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Rigel Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Rigel Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Rigel Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Rigel Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Rigel Pharmaceuticals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 116.88 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 53.72 M. | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 81.64 M in cash with (5.74 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.47. | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Raul Rodriguez of 300000 shares of Rigel Pharmaceuticals at 1.87 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Rigel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Rigel Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rigel Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.9 M |
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Rigel Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Rigel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Rigel Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Rigel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Rigel Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models
Rigel Pharmaceuticals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Rigel Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Rigel Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Rigel Pharmaceuticals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Rigel Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Rigel Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 116.88 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.09 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 53.72 M. | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 81.64 M in cash with (5.74 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.47. | |
| Rigel Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Raul Rodriguez of 300000 shares of Rigel Pharmaceuticals at 1.87 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Rigel Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Rigel Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Rigel Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Rigel Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Rigel Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Rigel Pharmaceuticals History as well as Rigel Pharmaceuticals Performance. For more information on how to buy Rigel Stock please use our How to buy in Rigel Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rigel Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Rigel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rigel Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.48) | Earnings Share 0.27 | Revenue Per Share 8.979 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.966 | Return On Assets 0.0461 |
The market value of Rigel Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rigel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rigel Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rigel Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rigel Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rigel Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rigel Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rigel Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rigel Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.