Rivian Automotive Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.89
| RIVN Stock | USD 14.06 0.39 2.70% |
Closest to current price Rivian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Rivian |
Rivian Automotive Target Price Odds to finish below 1.89
The tendency of Rivian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.89 or more in 90 days |
| 14.06 | 90 days | 1.89 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Rivian Automotive to drop to $ 1.89 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Rivian Automotive probability density function shows the probability of Rivian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Rivian Automotive price to stay between $ 1.89 and its current price of $14.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Rivian Automotive has a beta of 0.42 indicating as returns on the market go up, Rivian Automotive average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Rivian Automotive will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Rivian Automotive has an alpha of 0.1536, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Rivian Automotive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Rivian Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rivian Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rivian Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Rivian Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Rivian Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Rivian Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Rivian Automotive, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Rivian Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Rivian Automotive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Rivian Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Rivian Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Rivian Automotive had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Rivian Automotive has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.43 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (3.12 B). | |
| Rivian Automotive currently holds about 13.27 B in cash with (4.87 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 14.41, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Rivian Automotive has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: RIVN Stock Rises Following New Analyst Coverage |
Rivian Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Rivian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Rivian Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rivian Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 947 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.4 B |
Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis
Rivian Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Rivian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Rivian Automotive. In general, you should focus on analyzing Rivian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Rivian Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
Rivian Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Rivian Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Rivian Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Rivian Automotive
Checking the ongoing alerts about Rivian Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Rivian Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Rivian Automotive had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Rivian Automotive has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.43 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (3.12 B). | |
| Rivian Automotive currently holds about 13.27 B in cash with (4.87 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 14.41, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Rivian Automotive has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: RIVN Stock Rises Following New Analyst Coverage |
Check out Rivian Automotive Backtesting, Rivian Automotive Valuation, Rivian Automotive Correlation, Rivian Automotive Hype Analysis, Rivian Automotive Volatility, Rivian Automotive History as well as Rivian Automotive Performance. To learn how to invest in Rivian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Rivian Automotive guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Automobile Manufacturers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rivian Automotive. If investors know Rivian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rivian Automotive listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.60) | Revenue Per Share 4.602 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.35) | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (0.67) |
The market value of Rivian Automotive is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rivian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rivian Automotive's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rivian Automotive's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rivian Automotive's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rivian Automotive's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rivian Automotive's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rivian Automotive is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rivian Automotive's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.