River Oak Discovery Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 17.70
| RIVSX Fund | USD 19.18 0.22 1.16% |
River |
River Oak Target Price Odds to finish below 17.70
The tendency of River Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 17.70 or more in 90 days |
| 19.18 | 90 days | 17.70 | about 26.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of River Oak to drop to $ 17.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.75 (This River Oak Discovery probability density function shows the probability of River Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of River Oak Discovery price to stay between $ 17.70 and its current price of $19.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.28 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.44 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, River Oak will likely underperform. Additionally River Oak Discovery has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. River Oak Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for River Oak
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as River Oak Discovery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of River Oak's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
River Oak Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. River Oak is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the River Oak's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold River Oak Discovery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of River Oak within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0053 |
River Oak Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of River Oak for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for River Oak Discovery can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| River Oak Discovery maintains about 5.18% of its assets in cash |
River Oak Technical Analysis
River Oak's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. River Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of River Oak Discovery. In general, you should focus on analyzing River Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
River Oak Predictive Forecast Models
River Oak's time-series forecasting models is one of many River Oak's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary River Oak's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about River Oak Discovery
Checking the ongoing alerts about River Oak for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for River Oak Discovery help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| River Oak Discovery maintains about 5.18% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in River Mutual Fund
River Oak financial ratios help investors to determine whether River Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in River with respect to the benefits of owning River Oak security.
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