Renova Energia (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.87
| RNEW3 Stock | BRL 0.94 0.01 1.05% |
Renova |
Renova Energia Target Price Odds to finish over 11.87
The tendency of Renova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 11.87 or more in 90 days |
| 0.94 | 90 days | 11.87 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Renova Energia to move over R$ 11.87 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Renova Energia SA probability density function shows the probability of Renova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Renova Energia SA price to stay between its current price of R$ 0.94 and R$ 11.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 91.17 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Renova Energia has a beta of 0.62 indicating as returns on the market go up, Renova Energia average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Renova Energia SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Renova Energia SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Renova Energia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Renova Energia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Renova Energia SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Renova Energia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Renova Energia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Renova Energia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Renova Energia SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Renova Energia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Renova Energia Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Renova Energia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Renova Energia SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Renova Energia SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Renova Energia SA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Renova Energia SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Renova Energia SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Renova Energia SA has accumulated 958.2 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 136.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Renova Energia SA has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Renova Energia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Renova Energia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Renova Energia SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Renova to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Renova Energia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Renova Energia SA has accumulated about 354.11 M in cash with (147.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.92, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 26.0% of Renova Energia outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Renova Energia Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Renova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Renova Energia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Renova Energia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 359.4 M |
Renova Energia Technical Analysis
Renova Energia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Renova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Renova Energia SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Renova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Renova Energia Predictive Forecast Models
Renova Energia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Renova Energia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Renova Energia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Renova Energia SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Renova Energia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Renova Energia SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Renova Energia SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Renova Energia SA has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Renova Energia SA has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Renova Energia SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Renova Energia SA has accumulated 958.2 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 136.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Renova Energia SA has a current ratio of 0.85, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Renova Energia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Renova Energia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Renova Energia SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Renova to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Renova Energia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Renova Energia SA has accumulated about 354.11 M in cash with (147.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.92, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 26.0% of Renova Energia outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Renova Stock Analysis
When running Renova Energia's price analysis, check to measure Renova Energia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Renova Energia is operating at the current time. Most of Renova Energia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Renova Energia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Renova Energia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Renova Energia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.