Alfa Holdings (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.94
| RPAD3 Stock | BRL 7.94 0.00 0.00% |
Alfa |
Alfa Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 4.94
The tendency of Alfa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 4.94 or more in 90 days |
| 7.94 | 90 days | 4.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alfa Holdings to drop to R$ 4.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alfa Holdings SA probability density function shows the probability of Alfa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alfa Holdings SA price to stay between R$ 4.94 and its current price of R$7.94 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alfa Holdings has a beta of 0.27 indicating as returns on the market go up, Alfa Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alfa Holdings SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alfa Holdings SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alfa Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alfa Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfa Holdings SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alfa Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alfa Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alfa Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alfa Holdings SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alfa Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Alfa Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alfa Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alfa Holdings SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alfa Holdings SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alfa Holdings SA has accumulated about 457 K in cash with (1.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.17. | |
| Roughly 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Alfa Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alfa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alfa Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alfa Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 84.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.4 M |
Alfa Holdings Technical Analysis
Alfa Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alfa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alfa Holdings SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alfa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alfa Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Alfa Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Alfa Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alfa Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alfa Holdings SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alfa Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alfa Holdings SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alfa Holdings SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alfa Holdings SA has accumulated about 457 K in cash with (1.95 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.17. | |
| Roughly 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Alfa Stock Analysis
When running Alfa Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Alfa Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alfa Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Alfa Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alfa Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alfa Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alfa Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.