Refinaria (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.28
| RPMG3 Stock | BRL 2.44 0.01 0.41% |
Refinaria |
Refinaria Target Price Odds to finish over 2.28
The tendency of Refinaria Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 2.28 in 90 days |
| 2.44 | 90 days | 2.28 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Refinaria to stay above R$ 2.28 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Refinaria de Petrleos probability density function shows the probability of Refinaria Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Refinaria de Petrleos price to stay between R$ 2.28 and its current price of R$2.44 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Refinaria de Petrleos has a beta of -0.59 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Refinaria are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Refinaria de Petrleos is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Refinaria de Petrleos has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Refinaria Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Refinaria
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Refinaria de Petrleos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Refinaria Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Refinaria is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Refinaria's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Refinaria de Petrleos, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Refinaria within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Refinaria Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Refinaria for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Refinaria de Petrleos can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Refinaria generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Refinaria until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Refinaria's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Refinaria de Petrleos sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Refinaria to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Refinaria's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Refinaria de Petrleos reported the revenue of 2.21 B. Net Loss for the year was (361.76 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (61.38 M). | |
| About 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Refinaria Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Refinaria Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Refinaria's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Refinaria's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13 K |
Refinaria Technical Analysis
Refinaria's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Refinaria Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Refinaria de Petrleos. In general, you should focus on analyzing Refinaria Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Refinaria Predictive Forecast Models
Refinaria's time-series forecasting models is one of many Refinaria's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Refinaria's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Refinaria de Petrleos
Checking the ongoing alerts about Refinaria for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Refinaria de Petrleos help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Refinaria generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has a current ratio of 0.43, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Refinaria until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Refinaria's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Refinaria de Petrleos sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Refinaria to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Refinaria's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Refinaria de Petrleos reported the revenue of 2.21 B. Net Loss for the year was (361.76 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (61.38 M). | |
| About 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Refinaria Stock Analysis
When running Refinaria's price analysis, check to measure Refinaria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Refinaria is operating at the current time. Most of Refinaria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Refinaria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Refinaria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Refinaria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.