Spirit Airlines Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.02
| SAVEDelisted Stock | USD 0.15 0.11 42.31% |
Spirit |
Spirit Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 0.02
The tendency of Spirit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.02 or more in 90 days |
| 0.15 | 90 days | 0.02 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Spirit Airlines to drop to $ 0.02 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Spirit Airlines probability density function shows the probability of Spirit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Spirit Airlines price to stay between $ 0.02 and its current price of $0.15 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Spirit Airlines has a beta of -2.04. This usually implies as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Spirit Airlines are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Spirit Airlines is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Spirit Airlines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Spirit Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Spirit Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spirit Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Spirit Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Spirit Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Spirit Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Spirit Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Spirit Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Spirit Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.55 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Spirit Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Spirit Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Spirit Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Spirit Airlines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Spirit Airlines has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Spirit Airlines has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Spirit Airlines has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Spirit Airlines currently holds 6.93 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Spirit Airlines has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Spirit Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 5.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (447.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 973.03 M. | |
| Spirit Airlines currently holds about 1.06 B in cash with (246.66 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.73, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Airbus CEO says Spirit Aero talks going well but industrial challenges lie ahead |
Spirit Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Spirit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Spirit Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Spirit Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 109.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 977.7 M |
Spirit Airlines Technical Analysis
Spirit Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Spirit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Spirit Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Spirit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Spirit Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
Spirit Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Spirit Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Spirit Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Spirit Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about Spirit Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Spirit Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Spirit Airlines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Spirit Airlines has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Spirit Airlines has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Spirit Airlines has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Spirit Airlines currently holds 6.93 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.88, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Spirit Airlines has a current ratio of 0.91, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Spirit Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 5.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (447.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 973.03 M. | |
| Spirit Airlines currently holds about 1.06 B in cash with (246.66 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 9.73, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Airbus CEO says Spirit Aero talks going well but industrial challenges lie ahead |
Check out Spirit Airlines Backtesting, Spirit Airlines Valuation, Spirit Airlines Correlation, Spirit Airlines Hype Analysis, Spirit Airlines Volatility, Spirit Airlines History as well as Spirit Airlines Performance. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Other Consideration for investing in Spirit Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Spirit Airlines check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Spirit Airlines' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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