Saratoga Investment Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.35
| SAZ Stock | 25.45 0.04 0.16% |
Saratoga |
Saratoga Investment Target Price Odds to finish below 25.35
The tendency of Saratoga Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 25.35 or more in 90 days |
| 25.45 | 90 days | 25.35 | about 91.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Saratoga Investment to drop to 25.35 or more in 90 days from now is about 91.89 (This Saratoga Investment Corp probability density function shows the probability of Saratoga Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Saratoga Investment Corp price to stay between 25.35 and its current price of 25.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.57 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Saratoga Investment has a beta of 0.0681. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Saratoga Investment average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Saratoga Investment Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Saratoga Investment Corp has an alpha of 0.0235, implying that it can generate a 0.0235 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Saratoga Investment Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Saratoga Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saratoga Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Saratoga Investment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Saratoga Investment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Saratoga Investment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Saratoga Investment Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Saratoga Investment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.35 |
Saratoga Investment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Saratoga Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Saratoga Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Saratoga Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0524 |
Saratoga Investment Technical Analysis
Saratoga Investment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Saratoga Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Saratoga Investment Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Saratoga Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Saratoga Investment Predictive Forecast Models
Saratoga Investment's time-series forecasting models is one of many Saratoga Investment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Saratoga Investment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Saratoga Investment in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Saratoga Investment's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Saratoga Investment options trading.
Additional Tools for Saratoga Stock Analysis
When running Saratoga Investment's price analysis, check to measure Saratoga Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saratoga Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Saratoga Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saratoga Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saratoga Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saratoga Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.