Smurfit Kappa (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.83
| SK3 Stock | EUR 51.40 0.20 0.39% |
Smurfit |
Smurfit Kappa Target Price Odds to finish below 41.83
The tendency of Smurfit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 41.83 or more in 90 days |
| 51.40 | 90 days | 41.83 | about 25.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smurfit Kappa to drop to € 41.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.23 (This Smurfit Kappa Group probability density function shows the probability of Smurfit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smurfit Kappa Group price to stay between € 41.83 and its current price of €51.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 66.96 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Smurfit Kappa has a beta of 0.42. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Smurfit Kappa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Smurfit Kappa Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Smurfit Kappa Group has an alpha of 0.3586, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Smurfit Kappa Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smurfit Kappa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smurfit Kappa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smurfit Kappa Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smurfit Kappa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smurfit Kappa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smurfit Kappa Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smurfit Kappa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Smurfit Kappa Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smurfit Kappa for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smurfit Kappa Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Smurfit Kappa Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Smurfit Kappa Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Smurfit Kappa Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smurfit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smurfit Kappa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smurfit Kappa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 259 M |
Smurfit Kappa Technical Analysis
Smurfit Kappa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smurfit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smurfit Kappa Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smurfit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smurfit Kappa Predictive Forecast Models
Smurfit Kappa's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smurfit Kappa's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smurfit Kappa's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smurfit Kappa Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smurfit Kappa for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smurfit Kappa Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Smurfit Kappa Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Smurfit Kappa Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in Smurfit Stock
Smurfit Kappa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smurfit Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smurfit with respect to the benefits of owning Smurfit Kappa security.