SMI (Morocco) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2325.0
| SMI Stock | 2,800 50.00 1.75% |
SMI |
SMI Target Price Odds to finish over 2325.0
The tendency of SMI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 2,325 in 90 days |
| 2,800 | 90 days | 2,325 | about 35.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SMI to stay above 2,325 in 90 days from now is about 35.75 (This SMI probability density function shows the probability of SMI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SMI price to stay between 2,325 and its current price of 2800.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.79 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon SMI has a beta of -0.33. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding SMI are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, SMI is likely to outperform the market. Additionally SMI has an alpha of 0.3879, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SMI Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for SMI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SMI. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SMI Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SMI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SMI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SMI, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SMI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 280.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
SMI Technical Analysis
SMI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SMI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SMI. In general, you should focus on analyzing SMI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SMI Predictive Forecast Models
SMI's time-series forecasting models is one of many SMI's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SMI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SMI in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SMI's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SMI options trading.