Sona Topas (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4699.94
| SONA Stock | IDR 6,675 725.00 9.80% |
Sona |
Sona Topas Target Price Odds to finish below 4699.94
The tendency of Sona Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4,700 or more in 90 days |
| 6,675 | 90 days | 4,700 | about 42.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sona Topas to drop to 4,700 or more in 90 days from now is about 42.9 (This Sona Topas Tourism probability density function shows the probability of Sona Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sona Topas Tourism price to stay between 4,700 and its current price of 6675.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sona Topas Tourism has a beta of -1.06. This usually implies In addition to that Sona Topas Tourism has an alpha of 3.1382, implying that it can generate a 3.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sona Topas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sona Topas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sona Topas Tourism. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sona Topas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sona Topas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sona Topas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sona Topas Tourism, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sona Topas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 3.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3,427 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.28 |
Sona Topas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sona Topas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sona Topas Tourism can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sona Topas Tourism is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Sona Topas Tourism appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 67.87 B. Net Loss for the year was (57.24 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.28 B. | |
| Sona Topas generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 95.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Sona Topas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sona Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sona Topas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sona Topas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 331.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 437 B |
Sona Topas Technical Analysis
Sona Topas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sona Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sona Topas Tourism. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sona Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sona Topas Predictive Forecast Models
Sona Topas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Sona Topas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sona Topas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sona Topas Tourism
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sona Topas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sona Topas Tourism help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sona Topas Tourism is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Sona Topas Tourism appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 67.87 B. Net Loss for the year was (57.24 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 9.28 B. | |
| Sona Topas generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 95.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Sona Stock
Sona Topas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sona Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sona with respect to the benefits of owning Sona Topas security.