SOVEREIGN TRUST (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.68
| SOVRENINS | 0.73 0.05 7.35% |
SOVEREIGN |
SOVEREIGN TRUST Target Price Odds to finish below 0.68
The tendency of SOVEREIGN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.68 or more in 90 days |
| 0.73 | 90 days | 0.68 | about 90.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SOVEREIGN TRUST to drop to 0.68 or more in 90 days from now is about 90.61 (This SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE probability density function shows the probability of SOVEREIGN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE price to stay between 0.68 and its current price of 0.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.55 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE has a beta of -0.14. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding SOVEREIGN TRUST are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE is likely to outperform the market. Additionally SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE has an alpha of 0.2586, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SOVEREIGN TRUST Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for SOVEREIGN TRUST
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SOVEREIGN TRUST's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SOVEREIGN TRUST Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SOVEREIGN TRUST is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SOVEREIGN TRUST's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SOVEREIGN TRUST within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
SOVEREIGN TRUST Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SOVEREIGN TRUST for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SOVEREIGN TRUST generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| SOVEREIGN TRUST has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| SOVEREIGN TRUST has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
SOVEREIGN TRUST Technical Analysis
SOVEREIGN TRUST's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SOVEREIGN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE. In general, you should focus on analyzing SOVEREIGN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SOVEREIGN TRUST Predictive Forecast Models
SOVEREIGN TRUST's time-series forecasting models is one of many SOVEREIGN TRUST's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SOVEREIGN TRUST's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE
Checking the ongoing alerts about SOVEREIGN TRUST for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SOVEREIGN TRUST INSURANCE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SOVEREIGN TRUST generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| SOVEREIGN TRUST has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| SOVEREIGN TRUST has high historical volatility and very poor performance |