1st Source Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 47.17
| SRCE Stock | USD 63.60 0.64 1.00% |
1st |
1st Source Target Price Odds to finish below 47.17
The tendency of 1st Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 47.17 or more in 90 days |
| 63.60 | 90 days | 47.17 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 1st Source to drop to $ 47.17 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This 1st Source probability density function shows the probability of 1st Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of 1st Source price to stay between $ 47.17 and its current price of $63.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 74.31 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.11 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, 1st Source will likely underperform. Additionally 1st Source has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 1st Source Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 1st Source
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 1st Source. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
1st Source Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 1st Source is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 1st Source's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold 1st Source, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 1st Source within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
1st Source Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 1st Source for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for 1st Source can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of November 2024 1st Source paid $ 0.36 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
1st Source Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of 1st Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential 1st Source's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. 1st Source's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 106.4 M |
1st Source Technical Analysis
1st Source's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 1st Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of 1st Source. In general, you should focus on analyzing 1st Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
1st Source Predictive Forecast Models
1st Source's time-series forecasting models is one of many 1st Source's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 1st Source's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about 1st Source
Checking the ongoing alerts about 1st Source for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for 1st Source help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of November 2024 1st Source paid $ 0.36 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Check out 1st Source Backtesting, 1st Source Valuation, 1st Source Correlation, 1st Source Hype Analysis, 1st Source Volatility, 1st Source History as well as 1st Source Performance. For information on how to trade 1st Stock refer to our How to Trade 1st Stock guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of 1st Source. If investors know 1st will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about 1st Source listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of 1st Source is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of 1st that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of 1st Source's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is 1st Source's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because 1st Source's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect 1st Source's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between 1st Source's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 1st Source is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 1st Source's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.