Surmodics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 38.11
| SRDX Stock | USD 39.33 0.14 0.36% |
SurModics |
SurModics Target Price Odds to finish over 38.11
The tendency of SurModics Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 38.11 in 90 days |
| 39.33 | 90 days | 38.11 | about 82.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SurModics to stay above $ 38.11 in 90 days from now is about 82.6 (This SurModics probability density function shows the probability of SurModics Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SurModics price to stay between $ 38.11 and its current price of $39.33 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.19 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days SurModics has a beta of 0.33. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, SurModics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding SurModics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally SurModics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. SurModics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for SurModics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SurModics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SurModics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SurModics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SurModics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SurModics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SurModics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SurModics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
SurModics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SurModics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SurModics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SurModics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 126.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (11.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 29 M. | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Beryl Capital Management LLC Acquires 900,000 Shares in EMCORE Corp |
SurModics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SurModics Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential SurModics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SurModics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.1 M |
SurModics Technical Analysis
SurModics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SurModics Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SurModics. In general, you should focus on analyzing SurModics Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SurModics Predictive Forecast Models
SurModics' time-series forecasting models is one of many SurModics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SurModics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SurModics
Checking the ongoing alerts about SurModics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SurModics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SurModics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 126.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (11.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 29 M. | |
| Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Beryl Capital Management LLC Acquires 900,000 Shares in EMCORE Corp |
Additional Tools for SurModics Stock Analysis
When running SurModics' price analysis, check to measure SurModics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SurModics is operating at the current time. Most of SurModics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SurModics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SurModics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SurModics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.