Summit Materials Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 45.00
| SUM Stock | USD 51.16 2.76 5.70% |
Summit |
Summit Materials Target Price Odds to finish below 45.00
The tendency of Summit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 45.00 or more in 90 days |
| 51.16 | 90 days | 45.00 | about 76.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Summit Materials to drop to $ 45.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 76.11 (This Summit Materials probability density function shows the probability of Summit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Summit Materials price to stay between $ 45.00 and its current price of $51.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.62 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.66 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Summit Materials will likely underperform. Additionally Summit Materials has an alpha of 0.2611, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Summit Materials Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Summit Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Summit Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Summit Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Summit Materials Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Summit Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Summit Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Summit Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Summit Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.71 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Summit Materials Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Summit Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Summit Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Summit Materials Responds to Media Reports |
Summit Materials Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Summit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Summit Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Summit Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 374.2 M |
Summit Materials Technical Analysis
Summit Materials' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Summit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Summit Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing Summit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Summit Materials Predictive Forecast Models
Summit Materials' time-series forecasting models is one of many Summit Materials' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Summit Materials' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Summit Materials
Checking the ongoing alerts about Summit Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Summit Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Summit Materials Responds to Media Reports |
Check out Summit Materials Backtesting, Summit Materials Valuation, Summit Materials Correlation, Summit Materials Hype Analysis, Summit Materials Volatility, Summit Materials History as well as Summit Materials Performance. To learn how to invest in Summit Stock, please use our How to Invest in Summit Materials guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Construction Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Summit Materials. If investors know Summit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Summit Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Earnings Share 0.85 | Revenue Per Share 23.53 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.474 | Return On Assets 0.0464 |
The market value of Summit Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Summit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Summit Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Summit Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Summit Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Summit Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Summit Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Summit Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Summit Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.