Selective Insurance (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 76.41
| SV2 Stock | EUR 93.00 1.50 1.64% |
Selective |
Selective Insurance Target Price Odds to finish below 76.41
The tendency of Selective Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 76.41 or more in 90 days |
| 93.00 | 90 days | 76.41 | roughly 2.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Selective Insurance to drop to € 76.41 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.08 (This Selective Insurance Group probability density function shows the probability of Selective Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Selective Insurance price to stay between € 76.41 and its current price of €93.0 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Selective Insurance has a beta of 0.0878. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Selective Insurance average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Selective Insurance Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Selective Insurance Group has an alpha of 0.2185, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Selective Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Selective Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Selective Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Selective Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Selective Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Selective Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Selective Insurance Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Selective Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Selective Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Selective Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Selective Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Selective Insurance Group has accumulated 500.96 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 29.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Selective Insurance has a current ratio of 0.33, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Selective Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Selective Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Selective Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Selective to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Selective Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 87.0% of Selective Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors |
Selective Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Selective Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Selective Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Selective Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 76.1 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.12 | |
| Shares Float | 59.3 M |
Selective Insurance Technical Analysis
Selective Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Selective Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Selective Insurance Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Selective Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Selective Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Selective Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Selective Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Selective Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Selective Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Selective Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Selective Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Selective Insurance Group has accumulated 500.96 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 29.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Selective Insurance has a current ratio of 0.33, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Selective Insurance until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Selective Insurance's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Selective Insurance sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Selective to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Selective Insurance's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 87.0% of Selective Insurance shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Selective Stock
When determining whether Selective Insurance offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Selective Insurance's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Selective Insurance Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Selective Insurance Group Stock:Check out Selective Insurance Backtesting, Selective Insurance Valuation, Selective Insurance Correlation, Selective Insurance Hype Analysis, Selective Insurance Volatility, Selective Insurance History as well as Selective Insurance Performance. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.