Sernova Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.75
| SVA Stock | 0.23 0.01 4.17% |
Sernova |
Sernova Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 4.75
The tendency of Sernova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 4.75 or more in 90 days |
| 0.23 | 90 days | 4.75 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sernova Corp to move over 4.75 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Sernova Corp probability density function shows the probability of Sernova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sernova Corp price to stay between its current price of 0.23 and 4.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.83 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sernova Corp has a beta of -1.89. This usually implies as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Sernova Corp are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Sernova Corp is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Sernova Corp has an alpha of 0.2448, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sernova Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sernova Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sernova Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sernova Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sernova Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sernova Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sernova Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sernova Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Sernova Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sernova Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sernova Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sernova Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Sernova Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Sernova Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Sernova Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Sernova Corp generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Exro Technologies EBITDA per Share -0.41 - GuruFocus.com |
Sernova Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sernova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sernova Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sernova Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 303.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.8 M |
Sernova Corp Technical Analysis
Sernova Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sernova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sernova Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sernova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sernova Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Sernova Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sernova Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sernova Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sernova Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sernova Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sernova Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sernova Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Sernova Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Sernova Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Sernova Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (39 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Sernova Corp generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 12.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Exro Technologies EBITDA per Share -0.41 - GuruFocus.com |
Other Information on Investing in Sernova Stock
Sernova Corp financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sernova Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sernova with respect to the benefits of owning Sernova Corp security.