Smead International Value Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 58.35

SVXYX Fund  USD 57.34  0.25  0.44%   
Smead International's future price is the expected price of Smead International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Smead International Value performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Smead International Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Smead International Correlation, Smead International Hype Analysis, Smead International Volatility, Smead International History as well as Smead International Performance.
  
Please specify Smead International's target price for which you would like Smead International odds to be computed.

Smead International Target Price Odds to finish over 58.35

The tendency of Smead Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 58.35  or more in 90 days
 57.34 90 days 58.35 
about 66.26
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smead International to move over $ 58.35  or more in 90 days from now is about 66.26 (This Smead International Value probability density function shows the probability of Smead Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smead International Value price to stay between its current price of $ 57.34  and $ 58.35  at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.42 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Smead International Value has a beta of -0.0079. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Smead International are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Smead International Value is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Smead International Value has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Smead International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Smead International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smead International Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smead International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
56.3857.3458.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
56.8157.7758.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
55.7456.7057.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
56.7858.2059.61
Details

Smead International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smead International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smead International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smead International Value, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smead International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.0079
σ
Overall volatility
1.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Smead International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smead International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smead International Value can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smead International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund maintains 96.46% of its assets in stocks

Smead International Technical Analysis

Smead International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smead Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smead International Value. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smead Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Smead International Predictive Forecast Models

Smead International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smead International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smead International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Smead International Value

Checking the ongoing alerts about Smead International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smead International Value help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smead International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund maintains 96.46% of its assets in stocks

Other Information on Investing in Smead Mutual Fund

Smead International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smead Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smead with respect to the benefits of owning Smead International security.
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance