Swvl Holdings Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.43
| SWVL Stock | USD 6.16 0.31 4.79% |
Swvl |
Swvl Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 4.43
The tendency of Swvl Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.43 or more in 90 days |
| 6.16 | 90 days | 4.43 | about 58.49 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Swvl Holdings to drop to $ 4.43 or more in 90 days from now is about 58.49 (This Swvl Holdings Corp probability density function shows the probability of Swvl Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Swvl Holdings Corp price to stay between $ 4.43 and its current price of $6.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.56 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Swvl Holdings Corp has a beta of -1.28. This usually implies as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Swvl Holdings Corp are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Swvl Holdings is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Swvl Holdings Corp has an alpha of 0.7325, implying that it can generate a 0.73 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Swvl Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Swvl Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swvl Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swvl Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Swvl Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Swvl Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Swvl Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Swvl Holdings Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Swvl Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Swvl Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Swvl Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Swvl Holdings Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Swvl Holdings Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp currently holds 1.66 M in liabilities. Swvl Holdings Corp has a current ratio of 0.65, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Swvl Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp currently holds about 24.3 M in cash with (9.11 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.18. | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Swvl Signs Three Year Contract with G4S in Saudi Arabia to provide SaaS-Based Mobility Solutions |
Swvl Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Swvl Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Swvl Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Swvl Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 M |
Swvl Holdings Technical Analysis
Swvl Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Swvl Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Swvl Holdings Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Swvl Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Swvl Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Swvl Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Swvl Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Swvl Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Swvl Holdings Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Swvl Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Swvl Holdings Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Swvl Holdings Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp currently holds 1.66 M in liabilities. Swvl Holdings Corp has a current ratio of 0.65, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Swvl Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp currently holds about 24.3 M in cash with (9.11 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.18. | |
| Swvl Holdings Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Swvl Signs Three Year Contract with G4S in Saudi Arabia to provide SaaS-Based Mobility Solutions |
Check out Swvl Holdings Backtesting, Swvl Holdings Valuation, Swvl Holdings Correlation, Swvl Holdings Hype Analysis, Swvl Holdings Volatility, Swvl Holdings History as well as Swvl Holdings Performance. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Swvl Holdings. If investors know Swvl will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Swvl Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 0.37 | Revenue Per Share 3.368 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) | Return On Assets (0.13) | Return On Equity 0.9633 |
The market value of Swvl Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Swvl that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Swvl Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Swvl Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Swvl Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Swvl Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Swvl Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Swvl Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Swvl Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.