Tax Free Conservative Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.08
| TFCYX Fund | USD 10.02 0.00 0.00% |
Tax-free |
Tax-free Conservative Target Price Odds to finish over 10.08
The tendency of Tax-free Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.08 or more in 90 days |
| 10.02 | 90 days | 10.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tax-free Conservative to move over $ 10.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Tax Free Conservative probability density function shows the probability of Tax-free Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tax Free Conservative price to stay between its current price of $ 10.02 and $ 10.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.02 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Tax Free Conservative has a beta of -0.0089. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Tax-free Conservative are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Tax Free Conservative is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Tax Free Conservative has an alpha of 0.0017, implying that it can generate a 0.001711 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Tax-free Conservative Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Tax-free Conservative
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tax Free Conservative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tax-free Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tax-free Conservative Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tax-free Conservative is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tax-free Conservative's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tax Free Conservative, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tax-free Conservative within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0089 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -2.04 |
Tax-free Conservative Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tax-free Conservative for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tax Free Conservative can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund maintains about 14.38% of its assets in cash |
Tax-free Conservative Technical Analysis
Tax-free Conservative's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tax-free Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tax Free Conservative. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tax-free Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tax-free Conservative Predictive Forecast Models
Tax-free Conservative's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tax-free Conservative's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tax-free Conservative's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tax Free Conservative
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tax-free Conservative for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tax Free Conservative help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund maintains about 14.38% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Tax-free Mutual Fund
Tax-free Conservative financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tax-free Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tax-free with respect to the benefits of owning Tax-free Conservative security.
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